El Niño May Develop in 2023: India Braces for Deficit Monsoon and Extreme Weather

A warming El Niño event may be on the horizon, following three consecutive years of a stubborn and protracted La Niña, according to a recent update from the World Meteorological Organization. If El Niño does emerge by summer, India is likely to experience a deficit monsoon in 2023, accompanied by extreme wet and dry events. Although there may be isolated pockets of heavy rainfall, a monsoon deficit could have serious implications for India's agriculture and water supply.

India has already experienced unusual temperature rises, with the country's maximum temperature reaching the highest recorded since 1877 this February. An anticyclonic formation over south Gujarat has been cited as one of the main reasons for the warming on the west coast, with its effect being transmitted northward to Rajasthan, Punjab, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, and western Uttar Pradesh.

In the next three months, India is expected to face heatwaves, particularly in key wheat-producing central and northern states, including Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh. Increased wet bulb temperatures, which refer to the combination of relative humidity and temperature, can lead to heat stress and sunstroke, which can be deadly.

Climate change caused by the increase in greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, is responsible for rising temperatures worldwide. This increase in temperatures is causing melting glaciers and ice caps, rising sea levels, more frequent and intense heatwaves, droughts, and extreme weather events. India's declining monsoon is likely linked to the weakening of cooler air from the sea to hotter land, with clouds bearing rain, due to higher ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean.

The impacts of climate change can have significant environmental, economic, and social consequences, including food and water shortages, displacement of people, and damage to infrastructure and ecosystems. To protect oneself from heat stress and sunstroke, it's crucial to stay hydrated, stay cool, wear appropriate clothing, avoid sun exposure, take breaks, and monitor symptoms.

As India braces for a potential deficit monsoon and extreme weather events, it's vital to take action to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change. This could include shifting crops, using more automatic weather stations, implementing irrigation projects, and investing in drinking water infrastructure. Insurance against sunstroke and other heat-related illnesses could also be necessary. It's time to take climate change seriously and act accordingly to safeguard our planet and future generations.